I laughed when I saw the front pages of today's New York Times and Wall Street Journal..
The Times election story headline was "G.O.P. Confident On Election's Eve, With Voters Sour"; the WSJ front page said "Sullen Voters Set to Deliver Another Demand for Change".
"Sour"? "Sullen"? It sounds like dialog from one of those seafaring novel, maybe a Horatio Hornblower or possibly one of the recent Patrick O'Brian Jack Aubry adventures.
"Captain, I the bosun's mate looked sour when I give him his orders, he just turned his back and walked away. And this morning when I ordered the sails set the crew has a sullen look about them. I'm afraid there might be a mutinous attitude brewing up forward among the crew".
Well actually, there is. It is a bit unfocused but it definitely is aimed at the folks in NY and DC who see a typical mid-term rejection of the Presidential party and more deeply rooted misgivings about the direction of the country as some sort of mutiny below decks.
The explanation the NYT and WSJ comes up with has nothing to do with policy disagreements or a rejection of the NYC/DC consensus; it is that there is something wrong with the damned crew, the people who live up forward and below deck, the ones who do the dirty work on the ship for little pay. The crew has stopped listening to its betters, the well-dressed folks who dine aft in the Captain quarters.
Don't blame me, I voted libertarian....
Tuesday, November 4, 2014
Friday, September 5, 2014
Caulaincourt and de Segur-the war between Russia and Ukraine grinds to a halt
It took a bit longer than I had expected but Russia and Ukraine have been able to make a cease fire so that the real negotiations about the status of the Russian-speaking minority in the eastern Ukraine can begin.
A few points:
Part of the problem seems to have been a conflict between the Ukraine President and the Ukraine Prime Minister. Maybe it was about "who to blame"; maybe it was jockeying for future gain. But that is over for now.
Any big country facing an open border can keep a rebellion going on the other side by adding just a few soldiers, guns and dollars. We did it against the USSR in Afghanistan using Pakistan as the safe zone; The Afghan Pathans returned the favor by using Pakistan as the safe zone against us. The Kurds are are friends so we have supported them against Iraq. The list is endless. The Russians could have squashed the Ukraine army in a week, but "what then?" There are no obvious borders that are "natural". If Russia won it would just move the running sore of ethnic tension onto it's own turf. Putin want the border of the Ukraine as it is (minus the Crimea) but also wants to protect things like the Russian population's right to continue to school kids in Russian-speaking schools, something the right-wing Ukrainians are trying to end..
So who are Caulaincourt and de Segur? These two gentlemen are the real reason that Putin needed to wind this problem up this month. The fighting and fear of the Ukrainian central government have led to a huge exodus of Russian-speaking refugees into Russia- by one estimate nearly one million people. Many are living in tent cities. Now guys, this is Russia we're talking about. Remember General Winter? These people have to be convinced it is safe to return home NOW or they have to be housed in some permanent way- and if that happens they probably become refugees forever. Caulaincourt and de Segur were Frenchmen who were in Russian in 1812 with Bonapart. They endured the retreat from Moscow that killed most of the French army. They wrote wonderful and terrible books about the experience. The last time westerners read these books was in the fall of 1941 when some of senior officers in the German army squatting in front of Moscow ordered up copies. No one wants to go camping in a Russian winter.
So now the refugeecamps will be emptied, the folks will go home and Putin and the Ukrainians can get down to the work of sorting out the details. It is about time. Good luck guys and just ignore what the American's say. They haven't read the books about that winter...
A few points:
Part of the problem seems to have been a conflict between the Ukraine President and the Ukraine Prime Minister. Maybe it was about "who to blame"; maybe it was jockeying for future gain. But that is over for now.
Any big country facing an open border can keep a rebellion going on the other side by adding just a few soldiers, guns and dollars. We did it against the USSR in Afghanistan using Pakistan as the safe zone; The Afghan Pathans returned the favor by using Pakistan as the safe zone against us. The Kurds are are friends so we have supported them against Iraq. The list is endless. The Russians could have squashed the Ukraine army in a week, but "what then?" There are no obvious borders that are "natural". If Russia won it would just move the running sore of ethnic tension onto it's own turf. Putin want the border of the Ukraine as it is (minus the Crimea) but also wants to protect things like the Russian population's right to continue to school kids in Russian-speaking schools, something the right-wing Ukrainians are trying to end..
So who are Caulaincourt and de Segur? These two gentlemen are the real reason that Putin needed to wind this problem up this month. The fighting and fear of the Ukrainian central government have led to a huge exodus of Russian-speaking refugees into Russia- by one estimate nearly one million people. Many are living in tent cities. Now guys, this is Russia we're talking about. Remember General Winter? These people have to be convinced it is safe to return home NOW or they have to be housed in some permanent way- and if that happens they probably become refugees forever. Caulaincourt and de Segur were Frenchmen who were in Russian in 1812 with Bonapart. They endured the retreat from Moscow that killed most of the French army. They wrote wonderful and terrible books about the experience. The last time westerners read these books was in the fall of 1941 when some of senior officers in the German army squatting in front of Moscow ordered up copies. No one wants to go camping in a Russian winter.
So now the refugeecamps will be emptied, the folks will go home and Putin and the Ukrainians can get down to the work of sorting out the details. It is about time. Good luck guys and just ignore what the American's say. They haven't read the books about that winter...
Thursday, April 3, 2014
4 Social Security Fraud Overseas; a not-too-surprising list of countries
This month I turned seventy so I started to collect Social Security. The Social Security Administration sent me a "What You Need To Know..." booklet (SSA Pub. Num. 05-10077, ICN 468300, dated 3/2013). A person can usually get the Social Security payment sent to a foreign country but on page 12 was a list of countries where they will not send the payments (it is not clear if that means checks, electronic transfers or both).
The countries are Azerbaijan, Belarus, Cuba, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, North Korea, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan and Vietnam. The publications say that "exceptions can be made for certain eligible beneficiaries in countries other than Cuba and North Korea".
The list has a few surprises. Cuba and North Vietnam were expected but Iran was overlooked, probably because we don't do bank transfers there at all. All of the former Soviet republics except for the three EU-member Baltic States are on the banned list- with the exception of Russia and Armenia. This suggests that Russian banking is trustworthy in a technical sense. Armenia is a U.S.ally and has a large and politically powerful diaspora living mainly in California and New England. I suspect there are quite a few U.S. retirees there. Vietnam is also a bit of a surprise; we have pretty good relations with the place today. Is there some sort of fraud associated with the place that I don't understand? If you have any knowledge, let me know
Except for Cuba and North Korea this appears to be an anti-fraud list. I'm a bit surprised that Belarus and Ukraine were on the list in 2013. I'd definitely like to know how the list was created and why.
One other comment. There is well known and massive Social Security and VA benefits fraud in some places overseas. The Philippines is the best known case. None of the recipients ever dies- they live well past 100. Basically when people die it is never reported and there is a great deal of pressure on the U.S. from the immigrant communities not to ask for proof that the person is still alive. This isn't just a U.S. problem. When the oldest person in Japan died a few years ago the press went to the home of the second oldest... and found the person was long dead. It turned out that much of the press reports that "many Japanese live to be 100" were false; It was really 70 year-olds simply not reporting that the 90 year-old grandma had died so they could keep collecting the modest retirement income..
The countries are Azerbaijan, Belarus, Cuba, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, North Korea, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan and Vietnam. The publications say that "exceptions can be made for certain eligible beneficiaries in countries other than Cuba and North Korea".
The list has a few surprises. Cuba and North Vietnam were expected but Iran was overlooked, probably because we don't do bank transfers there at all. All of the former Soviet republics except for the three EU-member Baltic States are on the banned list- with the exception of Russia and Armenia. This suggests that Russian banking is trustworthy in a technical sense. Armenia is a U.S.ally and has a large and politically powerful diaspora living mainly in California and New England. I suspect there are quite a few U.S. retirees there. Vietnam is also a bit of a surprise; we have pretty good relations with the place today. Is there some sort of fraud associated with the place that I don't understand? If you have any knowledge, let me know
Except for Cuba and North Korea this appears to be an anti-fraud list. I'm a bit surprised that Belarus and Ukraine were on the list in 2013. I'd definitely like to know how the list was created and why.
One other comment. There is well known and massive Social Security and VA benefits fraud in some places overseas. The Philippines is the best known case. None of the recipients ever dies- they live well past 100. Basically when people die it is never reported and there is a great deal of pressure on the U.S. from the immigrant communities not to ask for proof that the person is still alive. This isn't just a U.S. problem. When the oldest person in Japan died a few years ago the press went to the home of the second oldest... and found the person was long dead. It turned out that much of the press reports that "many Japanese live to be 100" were false; It was really 70 year-olds simply not reporting that the 90 year-old grandma had died so they could keep collecting the modest retirement income..
Wednesday, April 2, 2014
3 Ukraine as of April 2nd
Not much to report. The next big event will be the election being sponsored by the U.S. and the EU. If it is fair, and if the Russian-leaning parts of the Ukraine participate, there is a fair chance that the crisis will slowly wind down.
The western press is now beginning to use the word "annexation" instead of "occupation" to describe the Russian takeover of the Crimea, language which associates the event with Germany in 1938 but also accepts it as a fact on the ground. Recent reports of Russian soldiers on the border "ready to invade" seem wildly overblown but the careful statements by the NATO military commander on potential responses seem about right. Everybody is still acting carefully and responsibly.
One other minor tidbit. About a week after the original Russian takeover there was a confrontation at the major Crimean airbase. Russian troops seem to have realized a bit late that there was a functioning antiaircraft battery very near the airfield that could easily shoot down incoming Russian planes. So Russian troops took control of the actual missiles but when they tried to occupy the headquarters building the Ukrainian soldiers rebuffed them. The fact that a very real Ukrainian antiaircraft system was operating right next to the primary landing field being used for Russian reinforcements says two things; first, that the original operation was not done with any pre-planning- it was a direct response to the overthrow of the Kiev government by the demonstrators; second, the Ukrainian and Russian militarys early-on realized that any accident that led to the death or injury of a soldier could blow up the situation, something both sides wanted to avoid.
According to recent Ukrainian estimates roughly half of the Ukrainian soldiers and sailors in the Crimea have chosen to go with the Russians, which gives some hint of how divided the loyalties of Russian-speaking Ukrainians are.
The western press is now beginning to use the word "annexation" instead of "occupation" to describe the Russian takeover of the Crimea, language which associates the event with Germany in 1938 but also accepts it as a fact on the ground. Recent reports of Russian soldiers on the border "ready to invade" seem wildly overblown but the careful statements by the NATO military commander on potential responses seem about right. Everybody is still acting carefully and responsibly.
One other minor tidbit. About a week after the original Russian takeover there was a confrontation at the major Crimean airbase. Russian troops seem to have realized a bit late that there was a functioning antiaircraft battery very near the airfield that could easily shoot down incoming Russian planes. So Russian troops took control of the actual missiles but when they tried to occupy the headquarters building the Ukrainian soldiers rebuffed them. The fact that a very real Ukrainian antiaircraft system was operating right next to the primary landing field being used for Russian reinforcements says two things; first, that the original operation was not done with any pre-planning- it was a direct response to the overthrow of the Kiev government by the demonstrators; second, the Ukrainian and Russian militarys early-on realized that any accident that led to the death or injury of a soldier could blow up the situation, something both sides wanted to avoid.
According to recent Ukrainian estimates roughly half of the Ukrainian soldiers and sailors in the Crimea have chosen to go with the Russians, which gives some hint of how divided the loyalties of Russian-speaking Ukrainians are.
Tuesday, March 25, 2014
2 Ukraine Issue as of March 4th, 2014
On March 3rd I attended a presentation at the University of Texas's LBJ School. The presenter was Tom Ricks, a prominent blogger at a well-known foreign relations website. I didn't entirely agree with his position on the Ukraine and at his suggestion I sent him and the website my take on the issue. I emailed him the following on March 4th. In the end they choose not to run it but I'd like to go on record with what I said then.
My best guess is that right now all parties are trying to act responsibly. Nobody wants this to degenerate into open, violent conflict. I'll publish more on the subject in the next few days.
Here is what I wrote on March 4th:
Today’s NYT lead article on the Ukraine by Steve Urlanger, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/04/world/europe/ukraine.html?hp&_r=0 says:
“In Donetsk, however, in eastern Ukraine, Mr. Yanukovych’s native region, a large pro-Russian demonstration led to some violence... The rally seemed the latest in a series in eastern cities that Kiev says are encouraged or even organized by Russia. Most people in the region are ethnic Ukrainians who speak Russian as their native language.”
The last part appears to be incorrect. Most likely it is a slight misreading of the ,Wikipedia article on Donetsk, which cites the 2001 post-Soviet Ukrainian census which says the population of the Donetsk oblast (region) is 38.2% Russian and 56.9% Ukrainian. But the 2007 census of Donetsk city shows 493,392 people (48.15%) claim Russian nationality while 478,041 (46.65%) claim Ukrainian nationality.
Even that may overstate the portion of the population which is ethnically Ukrainian. The only book cited, “Eternal Russia: Yeltsin, Gorbachev, and the Mirage of Democracy” by Jonathan Steele (Harvard Press 1988), which is listed by Wikipedia as a “dubious” source, says that in 1989 there were no Ukrainian language schools in this city of more than one million people. Further, the article cites Steele’s book as saying that in the 1991 census one-third of the city’s population described themselves as Russian, one-third as Ukrainian and one-third simply as “Slavs”, all-in-all a very neat trick for a 1988 book to cite a 1991 census.
My best guess is that right now all parties are trying to act responsibly. Nobody wants this to degenerate into open, violent conflict. I'll publish more on the subject in the next few days.
Here is what I wrote on March 4th:
Today’s NYT lead article on the Ukraine by Steve Urlanger, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/04/world/europe/ukraine.html?hp&_r=0 says:
“In Donetsk, however, in eastern Ukraine, Mr. Yanukovych’s native region, a large pro-Russian demonstration led to some violence... The rally seemed the latest in a series in eastern cities that Kiev says are encouraged or even organized by Russia. Most people in the region are ethnic Ukrainians who speak Russian as their native language.”
The last part appears to be incorrect. Most likely it is a slight misreading of the ,Wikipedia article on Donetsk, which cites the 2001 post-Soviet Ukrainian census which says the population of the Donetsk oblast (region) is 38.2% Russian and 56.9% Ukrainian. But the 2007 census of Donetsk city shows 493,392 people (48.15%) claim Russian nationality while 478,041 (46.65%) claim Ukrainian nationality.
Even that may overstate the portion of the population which is ethnically Ukrainian. The only book cited, “Eternal Russia: Yeltsin, Gorbachev, and the Mirage of Democracy” by Jonathan Steele (Harvard Press 1988), which is listed by Wikipedia as a “dubious” source, says that in 1989 there were no Ukrainian language schools in this city of more than one million people. Further, the article cites Steele’s book as saying that in the 1991 census one-third of the city’s population described themselves as Russian, one-third as Ukrainian and one-third simply as “Slavs”, all-in-all a very neat trick for a 1988 book to cite a 1991 census.
Monday, March 24, 2014
Post 1; Why this blog?
This month I turned 70. Time for a blog on the research I've done over the past few years, mostly on international affairs and military history. This blog will also allow me to go on record with a few predictions for the near future.
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