It took a bit longer than I had expected but Russia and Ukraine have been able to make a cease fire so that the real negotiations about the status of the Russian-speaking minority in the eastern Ukraine can begin.
A few points:
Part of the problem seems to have been a conflict between the Ukraine President and the Ukraine Prime Minister. Maybe it was about "who to blame"; maybe it was jockeying for future gain. But that is over for now.
Any big country facing an open border can keep a rebellion going on the other side by adding just a few soldiers, guns and dollars. We did it against the USSR in Afghanistan using Pakistan as the safe zone; The Afghan Pathans returned the favor by using Pakistan as the safe zone against us. The Kurds are are friends so we have supported them against Iraq. The list is endless. The Russians could have squashed the Ukraine army in a week, but "what then?" There are no obvious borders that are "natural". If Russia won it would just move the running sore of ethnic tension onto it's own turf. Putin want the border of the Ukraine as it is (minus the Crimea) but also wants to protect things like the Russian population's right to continue to school kids in Russian-speaking schools, something the right-wing Ukrainians are trying to end..
So who are Caulaincourt and de Segur? These two gentlemen are the real reason that Putin needed to wind this problem up this month. The fighting and fear of the Ukrainian central government have led to a huge exodus of Russian-speaking refugees into Russia- by one estimate nearly one million people. Many are living in tent cities. Now guys, this is Russia we're talking about. Remember General Winter? These people have to be convinced it is safe to return home NOW or they have to be housed in some permanent way- and if that happens they probably become refugees forever. Caulaincourt and de Segur were Frenchmen who were in Russian in 1812 with Bonapart. They endured the retreat from Moscow that killed most of the French army. They wrote wonderful and terrible books about the experience. The last time westerners read these books was in the fall of 1941 when some of senior officers in the German army squatting in front of Moscow ordered up copies. No one wants to go camping in a Russian winter.
So now the refugeecamps will be emptied, the folks will go home and Putin and the Ukrainians can get down to the work of sorting out the details. It is about time. Good luck guys and just ignore what the American's say. They haven't read the books about that winter...
